Who Will Win the Ballon d’Or 2024? Top Contenders and Predictions

Who Will Win the Ballon d’Or 2024? The 2024 Ballon d’Or ceremony will take place on Monday, October 28, at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris, where France Football magazine will honor the best player of the previous season, among other prizes. Leo Messi, who won his eighth Ballon d’Or after winning the 2022 World Cup with Argentina, was last year’s winner. This year, Vinicius Jr. is considered the leading candidate, thanks to his impressive season with Real Madrid, where he has become a key player. The Brazilian is one of 30 candidates, and Premiumsoccertips analyzes the leading candidates for the 2024 Ballon d’Or.

Who will win the 2024 Ballon d’Or? Candidates, favourites

Here are some of the leading candidates for the 2024 men’s Ballon d’Or. Sporting News will update this page until the award is presented.

Vinicius Jr – Striker, Real Madrid

Vinicius Jr., the Real Madrid star, has become a household name over the past few years, shining season after season. The Brazilian has faced a number of racist abuse incidents in Spain but has remained resilient on the pitch. Despite having many rivals in the Real Madrid squad, Vinicius remains an irreplaceable attacking leader. In the Champions League final, he scored the winner in a 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund, taking his tally for the season to 24, two years after scoring the winner as Real Madrid beat Liverpool.

However, Vinicius still has much to prove on the international stage. The 24-year-old has only scored five goals for Brazil in 34 appearances and the Selecao have once again failed to win the 2024 Copa America. Despite leading the race for the Ballon d’Or, reports on the morning of the award ceremony that Real Madrid had cancelled their delegation’s trip, knowing Vinicius had not won, led to speculation that Rodri had been the winner.

Rodri – Midfielder, Man City

The Spanish midfielder was one of the most important players last season. He was the nucleus of both Manchester City and Spain and his numbers prove it. He played in everything and was always a starter. He played 45 games for the English club, scoring nine goals and providing 12 assists. With Guardiola’s team, he won the Premier League, the UEFA Super Cup and the Club World Cup.

With the national team coached by Luis de la Fuente, he played 14 games, scoring three goals and assisting one. As the team’s tempo leader, he was one of the great architects of the European Championship victory. An irreplaceable figure who, after a spectacular season, deserves to be one of the top contenders for the trophy.

Jude Bellingham – Midfielder, Real Madrid

Jude Bellingham has yet to make Real Madrid his own, but the 20-year-old England international has already achieved more than any first-year player in the Spanish capital since Cristiano Ronaldo. He has also achieved something Ronaldo couldn’t: winning the Champions League in his first season in Madrid, and crucially, against former club Borussia Dortmund.

The young midfielder is a generational talent, playing in a deeper role at the German club at world-class level until Carlo Ancelotti deployed him as a No. 10. At the time, this seemed absurd given Bellingham’s exceptional skill level in his old No. 6/No. 8 role, but with 23 goals and 13 assists this season in all competitions, it has proven to be a masterstroke.

Bellingham also played a key role for his country at Euro 2024, with his stoppage-time overhead kick helping them stay in the tournament. If he wins the award, he will miss out on becoming the youngest ever player in October.

Kylian Mbappe – Forward, PSG

Kylian Mbappe, widely regarded as the best player in the world right now, was always going to have competition for popularity in Ballon d’Or voting. However, he had a quiet season at PSG, as the club were knocked out of the Champions League by Borussia Dortmund, and Mbappe was overshadowed by the likes of Jadon Sancho and Ousmane Dembele.

Mbappe has struggled since the start of 2024. Despite scoring 23 of his 44 goals for PSG, many of them in low-key matches, such as eight in the Coupe de France, he was left empty-handed in the final as PSG lost to Lyon. Despite scoring a hat-trick against Montpellier and a brace against Lorient, he failed to score against Lille and Lyon, and failed to score against Monaco, Reims and Brest. Even his absence from the Champions League was a major disappointment.

To win the 2024 Ballon d’Or, Mbappe needed an impressive performance at this summer’s Euros. However, he underperformed and France failed to reach the semi-finals, which dented his chances.

Harry Kane – Striker, Bayern Munich

Harry Kane is the top scorer in Europe’s top leagues this season, with 44 goals in 45 games in his first season at Bayern Munich. However, like Mbappe, very few of those goals have come in the decisive moments that would have won the Ballon d’Or.

What has hurt Kane the most is that Bayern have failed to win any silverware this season, leading many to suggest he is “cursed”. He only scored once, against Bayer Leverkusen, in a game that saw Bayern take just one point from their two games. His only goal in the Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid also came from the penalty spot, out of nine he scored all season.

Kane is still scoring prolifically, as he has throughout his career, and this will continue at Euro 2024 despite his less-than-stellar record. He scored three goals and shared the Golden Boot with five other players. However, not being completely superior to Jude Bellingham, winning the Ballon d’Or will be a big challenge for him.

Florian Wirtz – Midfielder, Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen playmaker Florian Wirtz has had his most impressive season in Germany, helping the club close in on a historic unbeaten campaign. Under the guidance of Xabi Alonso, Leverkusen won the domestic double and enjoyed a string of impressive results throughout the campaign.

Wirtz, 21, in his first full season since returning from injury, has been central to that success. In the No. 10 role, he has scored 18 goals and provided 20 assists, maintaining his impressive form throughout the campaign. He is now a key figure for Germany at Euro 2024 and a leading candidate for the Ballon d’Or.

However, there are two factors that stand in Wirtz’s way. Firstly, he did not play for a club big enough to attract the necessary global attention, despite Leverkusen’s impressive record. Secondly, defeat in the Europa League final damaged his credibility, as Atalanta shut down Leverkusen’s attack, ruining their chances of an unbeaten treble.

Phil Foden – Midfielder/Forward, Man City

Phil Foden played a key role in Manchester City winning a historic fourth consecutive Premier League title. He also won the FWA Footballer of the Year award, scoring 27 goals and providing 12 assists in all competitions.

However, like Wirtz, Foden faced some negative factors. Although Man City won the Premier League, they failed in the Champions League and domestic cup competitions, which took away from the prestige of the team, especially compared to last season’s historic treble. It’s unfair, but that’s how people see it.

Furthermore, Foden has to compete with other big stars in his own squad. Erling Haaland, despite a poor season, still won the Premier League Golden Boot, while Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne continue to be bright spots with outstanding talent. This leaves Foden sharing the spotlight within the team, despite City increasingly becoming his team. Foden is likely to be a regular in these debates going forward.

Lionel Messi — Forward, Inter Miami

Lionel Messi, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, is the most decorated player in the award’s history with eight wins, most recently last year, making him the second-oldest winner in history after Stanley Matthews in 1956.

Messi currently plays for Inter Miami in MLS and continues to maintain his excellent form, leading the league in goals and assists despite a number of fitness issues and a significant amount of rest.

However, Messi will not have a chance to win the Ballon d’Or this year, as he was not included in the 30-man shortlist. Although the award has been open to players from all over the world since 2007, MLS is still considered a lower league than European leagues, which has hurt Messi’s chances, despite helping Argentina win the Copa America.

Although Messi became the first player to win the Ballon d’Or while playing for a non-European club last year, his notable achievements (such as winning the 2022 World Cup) all occurred before he joined Inter Miami. If anyone could win the Ballon d’Or while playing outside Europe, Messi would be a strong candidate, but he won’t be on the list this year.

Conclusion

The 2024 Ballon d’Or promises to be an exciting contest between top stars. Vinicius Jr. and Rodri stand out thanks to their impressive achievements at club and national team, while Jude Bellingham continues to prove his outstanding talent at Real Madrid. However, it is impossible not to mention names like Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane, players who are always strong candidates but face big challenges. Although Lionel Messi is not on the list this year, his absence still makes the race more interesting. With excellent performances from many talents, the 2024 Ballon d’Or will certainly not be short of surprises.

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